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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd